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Contents
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Preface
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5
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Transition Economies Issues
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Wilhelm Krelle, Problems of Transition from a Planned to a Market Economy
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9
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Gerd Hansen, Were There Alternative Economic Policies After the German Unification?
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47
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Władysław Welfe, Slowdown in the Late 90’s: External Shocks and Policy Alternatives
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64
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Macroeconometric Models
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Nicholas G. Zonzilos, Structural Econometric Modelling at the Bank of Greece
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81
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Miroslav Gavura, Miloslaw Tkáč, Econometric Model NBS (Philosophy, structure of
equations, applications)
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95
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Władysław Welfe, Waldemar Florczak, Aleksander Welfe, The Annual Macromodel of the
Polish Economy (Model version W8-98)
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128
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Daniel Piazolo, Amending the Use of Computable General Equilibrium Models for Transition
Countries
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189
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Disequilibrium Models and Their Use
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Aleksander Welfe, Michał Majsterek, Wage and Price Inflation in Poland in the Period
of Transition – The Cointegration Analysis
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215
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Daniel Radowski, Werner Smolny, Peter Winker, Modeling German Unification in a Disequilibrium
Framework
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229
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Michał Greszta, Modelling Polish Aggregate Goods Market in Transition. A Disequilibrium
Approach
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257
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Economic Growth
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Carlo D’Adda and Antonello E. Scorcu, Growth and Long Term Capital Accumulation:
Seven Major Industrial Countries
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279
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Michael Brandmeier, Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Trade and Factors Productivity
on the Eastern European Transforming Countries
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300
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K. Mc. Morrow, W. Roeger, The Economic Consequences of Ageing Populations: A Comparison
of he EU, US and Japan
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326
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Financial Models and Policy
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Władysław Welfe, Growth, Inflation and the Budget Deficit: Simulation Excercises
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331
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Jacek Osiewalski, Mateusz Pipień, Garch-In-Mean Through Skewed t Conditional Distributions:
Bayesian Inference for Exchange Rates
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354
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Aleksander Welfe, Janusz Brzeszczyński, Direction Quality Measures for ARCH Models:
the Case of Warsaw Stock Exchange Stock Prices
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370
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